4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/11/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Nolan Arenado To Hit a Home Run (+210)
Nolan Arenado is as elite as they come and finds himself holding a .470 wOBA, .397 ISO, 40.0% hard-hit rate and a 45.5% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. That is where he has been his whole career, and we should expect him to continue his success against lefty pitchers. He is at home in Coors Field which gives us the best park factor in the league and now up against Jose Quintana, who has a 4.36 xFIP and is allowing 1.27 homers per nine innings to right-handed hitters this season.
The odds on Arenado going deep tonight are good as always at +210 and with him having homered in each of his last two home games, he is in a spot to continue that trend tonight.
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants UNDER 8.0 Runs (-116)
To put things lightly, the San Francisco Giants aren't a good team in any capacity and you should look to attack them any time you can.
To explain that further, the Giants have a 77 wRC+ (27th in the league), .156 ISO (27th), and a 23.5% strikeout rate (11th) versus right-handed pitchers. Their offense is basically nonexistent against righty pitchers, and that won't be changing tonight against Chris Paddack, who has a 3.76 xFIP, 27.4% strikeout rate, and a super low 5.0% walk rate this season.
Paddack is one of the best young pitchers in the league, and he now has the best park factor behind him today, which should help keep the score low.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles OVER 9 Runs (-116)
Even if the starters do their job and don't get shelled, the same cannot be said for the bullpens. The Baltimore Orioles' relievers have allowed the second-most home runs, while the Toronto Blue Jays have allowed the fifth most, along with both being in the bottom half of the league for earned runs allowed.
Regardless of things look early in the game, once the bullpens get involved, anything is bound to happen with how many runs and homers each team allows. Two average teams with very bad relievers going head-to-head could mean some late-inning fireworks.
Minnesota Twins Spread -1.5 (+100)
The run line, aka spread, is -1.5 in favor of the Twins tonight, who have won three of the four games against the Mariners this season, all by five runs or more. Yes, that's a small sample size, but this is a different Twins team compared to years past, and despite the Mariners' hot start, they have fallen 13 games under .500.
The Twins come into this game having won 14 of their last 20 games and by margins of two or more runs in 13 of those 14 victories. That is simply absurd and with them carrying a 124 wRC+ (1st in the league), .242 ISO (1st), and 20.1% strikeout rate (28th), they aren't wasting any chances at the plate and bring the power and runs every single game.