4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for 7/5/19
As of this writing, roughly half of tonight's 26 teams are showing implied totals of 4.80 or higher, so we don't exactly have a shortage of offense expected for Friday's slate of games. But a handful are in especially juicy spots, with a few teams hovering around six implied runs.
Each day here on numberFire, we'll go through four offenses ripe for the stacking. They could have a great matchup, be in a great park, or just have a lot of quality sticks in the lineup, but these are the offenses primed for big days that you may want a piece of.
Premium members can use our stacking feature to customize their stacks within their optimal lineups for the day, choosing the team you want to stack and how many players you want to include. You can also check out our hitting heat map, which provides an illustration of which offenses have the best combination of matchup and potency.
Now, let's get to the stacks.
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox arguably draw tonight's best pitching matchup (6.49 implied total), as they're expected to face left-hander Gregory Soto, who's really struggled at the big league level. Through six starts, Soto has posted a 6.03 SIERA, 14.4% strikeout rate, and 11.5% walk rate -- all ugly -- and he's also really struggled to keep the ball in the park off a 41.6% hard-hit rate and 40.8% fly-ball rate.
Making matters even better for the Sox is a Tigers bullpen that owns the fifth-worst xFIP among active rosters (4.71).
Mookie Betts ($4,300), J.D. Martinez ($4,400), and Xander Bogaerts ($4,200) make for a formidable trio of righty sticks in the top half of the lineup, and both Christian Vazquez ($3,000) and Michael Chavis ($3,500) have shown solid pop this year, too.
The lefty-lefty matchup isn't ideal for Rafael Devers ($4,300), though he'll likely go lower owned compared to the other high-priced Sox and could still feast on the Tigers' bullpen. Since the start of May, Devers has produced a .415 wOBA and .287 ISO while only striking out 16.0% of the time.
The Washington Nationals (6.01 implied total) also face a struggling hurler in Brad Keller, who likewise has some pretty ghastly numbers across the board, with a 5.39 SIERA, 16.3% strikeout rate, and 10.9% walk rate over 18 starts this season.
While a high ground-ball rate has helped him keep the ball out of the seats since his debut in 2018, it's dropped to a less imposing 49.8% this year, and he's also allowing way more hard contact (38.2%). For that reason, it wouldn't be surprising to see him give up more bombs moving forward, and perhaps we're already starting to see that -- he's been crushed in two of his last three starts, allowing four home runs over that stretch.
Anthony Rendon ($4,400), Juan Soto ($4,200), and Trea Turner ($4,000) are the stars here, of course, but there are also plenty of affordable bats we can roster, with the rest of the lineup coming in at $3,000 or lower. Adam Eaton ($3,000) is an inexpensive number-two hitter, while Ryan Zimmerman ($2,700) and Brian Dozier ($2,600) have some pop out of the fifth and sixth spots.
Jordan Yamamoto has enjoyed some excellent results through his first four Major League starts, but his peripherals suggest that the good times may not continue for long. Despite a crisp 2.35 ERA, a 4.96 SIERA is far less encouraging, and a .189 BABIP and 0.0% homer-to-fly-ball rate represent some clear signs of Yamamoto benefiting from some good fortune.
The lack of any home runs is especially unlikely to last much longer, as he's allowing a 43.4% hard-hit rate and 49.1% fly-ball rate, and he won't benefit from the pitcher-friendly confines of Marlins Park tonight.
Instead, he'll have to contend with warm temperatures at SunTrust Park against an Atlanta Braves lineup (5.73 implied total) that isn't short on power. Ronald Acuna ($4,200) and Freddie Freeman ($4,400) are always dangerous, and they're joined by some fairly affordable bats in the top half of the order between Ozzie Albies ($3,300), Josh Donaldson ($3,100), and Nick Markakis ($3,000).
Austin Riley ($3,500) is boom-or-bust due to an ugly 33.7% strikeout rate, but the power upside is no joke, producing a .307 ISO off a 45.0% hard-hit rate and 48.2% fly-ball rate.
Toronto Blue Jays
Right-hander Dylan Bundy can get punchouts, but we've seen him fail to keep the ball in the park his entire career, allowing 1.74 per nine innings, and that number has creeped over 2.00 since the start of last season.
Left-handed batters are his big weakness, with his strikeout rate dropping to just 17.5% in the split this season, which is nearly identical to his career rate (17.7%). That gives a boost to Justin Smoak ($2,800), Cavan Biggio ($3,700), Eric Sogard ($3,300), Freddy Galvis ($2,900), and Rowdy Tellez ($2,500).
Plus, on top of all that, we can never forget the Orioles' poor bullpen, which ranks last among active rosters with a 4.89 xFIP this year.
To read all premium content, upgrade to a Premium account with numberFire
If you're not a Premium subscriber, it takes just a few seconds to sign up. You'll get access to all of our insider information, game projections, handicapping advice, DFS tools, advanced statistics, and more.