NBA Finals Odds Update: How Toronto's Game 1 Win Altered the Series
In the NBA playoffs, winning games at home is typically seen more as taking care of business than actually changing the course of the entire series.
However, when the team with homecourt advantage enters as the underdog and secures a a 1-0 series lead, things are going to change. But by how much?
Quite a lot, actually.
Evening the Odds?
The Toronto Raptors' 118-109 victory over the Golden State Warriors has improved their series win odds, via FanDuel Sportsbook, from +230 to +138. In terms of probability, that's about a shift from 30% to 42%, drawing the series closer to 60/40 than 70/30. Conversely, the Warriors -- still heavy favorites -- fell from -290 to -162 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
As for our algorithm's pick, we see similar movement. The Warriors were 70.3% likely to win the Finals prior to Game 1. They are still the favorite to win four of the next six and hold a 56.1% chance to win another NBA title, but we're nearing toss-up territory. Naturally, that puts Toronto's chances to hang a banner at 43.9%, according to our algorithm. They entered as 29.7% likely to win the title.
Can Toronto Keep It Up?
The Raptors were 1.5-point favorites entering Game 1, and that's the line again for Game 2 on FanDuel Sportsbook. They're -124 on the moneyline, and per numberFire Live's projections, they are 63% likely to put the Warriors in a two-game deficit.