College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: 11/3/18 Main Slate
Week 10 of the college football season is here. And after nine full weeks of games and action, we're in store for another exciting Saturday, both on the field and on the daily fantasy slate.
College football DFS? Yes, you heard that right. And in case you're unfamiliar with how it works, you can check out the rules and scoring on FanDuel, where you can hit the lobby each week to see the full array of slates and contests being offered.
As for the basics, your roster consists of a quarterback slot, two running back slots, three wide receiver slots (which also includes tight ends) and one super flex slot. In the flex, you can insert one player from any position, including quarterbacks.
Here, our goal is to help you field a roster full of fantasy goodness, and in true numberFire fashion, we'll use our in-house projections as well as betting totals and advanced statistics to tackle as many slates as possible in the lead-up to the College Football Playoff. This week, we are only breaking down Saturday's main slate, which locks at 12:00 p.m. EST. It's a monster, consisting of 15 games, including a potential Big 12 shootout between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Who should we be targeting there and elsewhere in Week 10?
D'Eriq King, Houston ($10,800): With such a large slate, there are plenty of great options at the top, but D'Eriq King is the Houston Cougars' offense. The junior signal caller has 2,403 yards and 28 touchdowns through the air, while also taking 69 rushes -- second on the team -- for 413 yards and 11 rushing scores. The guy even has a catch for 12 yards. But as a result of this usage, King's DFS floor and ceiling are higher than anyone's. He has had no fewer than 22.46 FanDuel points in a single game, and he's now hit 40-plus in five of eight contests. This week, he draws an SMU team ranked 72nd in Football Outsiders' defensive S&P+, leading Houston to the fourth-highest implied total (42.75) on the main slate. You really can't go wrong with Oklahoma's Kyler Murray ($10,600) and Ohio State's Dwayne Haskins ($10,300), but King's well worth the extra $200-500.
Sam Ehlinger, Texas ($9,600): If you want to pay down in tournaments, or just go with a two-quarterback lineup, Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger has the upside of a $10K guy. Outside of his early exit two weeks ago, the sophomore has averaged 28.6 FanDuel points this season. His lowest output was 18.28, and in his last two healthy games he's posted 47.06 and 36.02 FanDuel points, with nine total touchdowns (four passing, five rushing). He's back at home this week against West Virginia and a Mountaineers defense that sits 58th defensively and has allowed 64 points across their only two road games this season. The Longhorns' 30-point total could go overlooked, putting Ehlinger in what could be tournament-winning spot this week.
Charlie Brewer, Baylor ($9,100): This low-cost play comes with a bit of work. Usual starter Charlie Brewer was placed in the concussion protocol, and last we hard out of Waco, he's "progressing nicely" and the team's hopeful that he'll be available for Saturday's matchup with Oklahoma State. If he's cleared, the Cowboys defense is one to exploit; they are 69th overall and 76th in passing S&P as a defense, not to mention 111th in defensive back havoc rate. As 7.5-point dogs with a 30.25 implied total at home, Baylor should be throwing often, and when Brewer's attempted at least 30 passes, he's averaged 24.5 FanDuel points. He also has surprised with four scores on the ground. But in the event he can't go, it looks like senior Jalan McClendon ($8,200) will draw the start for the Bears. Stepping in for Brewer last week, the dual-threat QB completed 16-of-21 passes for 183 yards while he also ran for 22 yards and a score on 11 rushes.
David Montgomery, Iowa State ($9,500): I'm okay with any of the top four options -- by price -- on the board this week, but dropping down $300-600 can help make your roster more well rounded. Plus, Montgomery's a stud, and he gets a poor Kansas team this Saturday. His Iowa State Cyclones are 14.5-point road favorites, so game script could lead to a similar workload as last week, when the junior back took 33 carries for 125 yards, 2 touchdowns and 24.5 FanDuel points. And that comes after a 25.4-FanDuel-point performance in the team's previous game. The Jayhawks are a little better against the run (50th), but they're 96th overall and 81st in power success rate against.
Devine Ozigbo, Nebraska ($9,000): Now, this isn't a play for those completely risk-averse. Nebraska is on the road at the Horseshoe as 18-point underdogs to Ohio State, and the Buckeyes are 10th in adjusted line yards against and 13th in stuff rate (25.4%). But as a tournament play, Ozigbo has upside that should come at limited ownership. In his last three games, he's totaled 421 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns with an average of 27.1 FanDuel points. He has three games of 32-plus FanDuel points on the year, and he isn't dead when Nebraska trails. His versatility has allowed him to haul in 13 catches for 115 yards on the year, including a combined 7 catches for 58 yards in a two-game set against Minnesota and Northwestern. If this one even stays somewhat close, he should get enough work to return a nice fantasy day.
Kennedy Brooks, Oklahoma ($8,600): Yes, I know Trey Sermon is still the starter in Norman, but he hasn't been 100% due to a leg injury. Last week, Sermon only saw 8 carries, which he turned into 58 yards. Meanwhile, Brooks got just 5 totes, but he took those for 94 yards and 2 scores (21.4 FanDuel points). He's put up 21.4 or more FD points in three games this season. He's explosive, running behind an OU line that ranks sixth in adjusted line yards and facing a Texas Tech defense susceptible to the big play. Their 79th-ranked defense is 74th in opportunity rate against and 80th in IsoPPP+. Brooks should find the end zone at least once with the oddsmakers expecting the Sooners to put up over 45 points in a good ole fashioned shootout in Lubbock.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
James Proche, SMU ($9,300): The guys at the top are basically no-brainers, but we can't spend up everywhere, especially if you're locking in King. Plus, a few of those top wideouts have respectable competition for targets. James Proche? Not so much. The 5'11" junior ranks 12th in the nation in target share (29.44%), per NCAA Savant, with 55 catches, 691 yards and 8 touchdowns. And his 23 red zone targets are first in the nation, so Proche has as good of a chance to score as any receiver on the slate. It's an added bonus that the 'Stangs (+14.5) will likely be in a negative game script against Houston, making him a great play along with King and company. If I'm paying more at wide receiver, Texas Tech's Antoine Wesley ($9,700) is the guy. He has a 22.08% target share and is coming off two straight games of at least 8 catches, 119 yards, 1 touchdown and 21.9 FanDuel points.
Keith Corbin, Houston ($8,500): For the Cougars, receiver Courtney Lark is considered "very questionable" for this Saturday's game. Lark's absence opens up 5.5 targets, 4.0 catches and 63.6 yards per game in the Houston attack, so that opportunity should be funneled in the direction of Corbin. Corbin's 13.07% target share is third on the team, and he has 27 catches, 509 yards and 7 touchdowns to show for it. He has a nose for the end zone, scoring a touchdown in six straight games before last week's one-catch dud. Corbin's teammate, tight end Romello Brooker ($6,400), is another candidate for more catches. He's a big-time tournament play because he's very touchdown-dependent. He has four touchdowns on the year and three in the last four games, though that's come on 18 catches and 22 targets.
T.J. Vasher, Texas Tech ($8,400): If you're not willing to pay the tall price for Wesley, Vasher is a very cheap way to get exposure to the Red Raiders' offense and the sky-high total between them and the Sooners. He's just third on the team in target share (10.73%), but he has 10 grabs over the last two and 4 scores on the year. Texas Tech is first on the slate in plays per game (87.1) and second in pass-to-run ratio (1.17). The upside is there. If you're willing to pivot, though, the Buckeyes' K.J. Hill ($8,400) is an option at the same price point. He has back-to-back games with 9 catches, and with 48 targets, checks in a close second to Parris Campbell (56), who runs a cool grand more but in the same juicy matchup.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.