College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: 11/10/18 Main Slate
Week 11 of the college football season is here. And after 10 full weeks of games and action, we're in store for another exciting Saturday, both on the field and on the daily fantasy slate.
College football DFS? Yes, you heard that right. And in case you're unfamiliar with how it works, you can check out the rules and scoring on FanDuel, where you can hit the lobby each week to see the full array of slates and contests being offered.
As for the basics, your roster consists of a quarterback slot, two running back slots, three wide receiver slots (which also includes tight ends) and one super flex slot. In the flex, you can insert one player from any position, including quarterbacks.
Here, our goal is to help you field a roster full of fantasy goodness, and in true numberFire fashion, we'll use our in-house projections as well as betting totals and advanced statistics to tackle as many slates as possible in the lead-up to the College Football Playoff. This week, we are breaking down Saturday's main slate, which locks at 12:00 p.m. EST. It's a giant one, too, consisting of 16 games including Bedlam, the annual matchup of in-state rivals Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
Who should we be targeting in what matchups this week in college football?
Kyler Murray, Oklahoma ($10,700): The Sooners head into Week 11 with the highest implied total (50.25) in a game sporting the largest over/under (79.5) on the slate by a margin of 15.5 points. Their quarterback, Kyler Murray, is the OU offense, averaging 36.0 FanDuel points on 362.5 total yards, 3.4 passing touchdowns and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game. The Cowboys' defense is 67th in Football Outsiders' defensive S&P+ and have given up at least 21 points in seven of nine games, including 31 or more in four straight and 35 in back-to-back games (cue the Mike Gundy sound). So if you're able to find value elsewhere, paying up for Murray is a wise choice.
Sam Ehlinger, Texas ($9,800): It seems like every week now, Sam Ehlinger's finding his way into this helper -- and for good reason. The Texas Longhorns quarterback has shown major consistency of late, producing at least 36.02 FanDuel points in three of the last four (he was hurt in the other), including two straight. He and the 'Horns take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders this week in what projects to be a close game, according to the oddsmakers. The matchup boasts a nice 62-point over/under and Texas is a 1.5-point road favorite against the NCAA's 88th-ranked defensive unit. Ehlinger's in play in all formats, though anyone could hardly fault you for pivoting to Alabama star Tua Tagovailoa ($9,900) at $100 more. 'Bama's offense is tied for the third-highest implied total (38.25) on the board this week.
Jett Duffey, Texas Tech ($8,100): It's no secret that Jett Duffey's a big value play this week. Usual Tech signal caller Alan Bowman is not expected to play Saturday after his second four-night hospital stay for a partially collapsed lung. Duffey's expected to get the call, just as he did last week, when -- in replacing Bowman -- he threw for 139 yards and 2 scores, and ran for 47 yards and a score on 13 carries (24.26 FanDuel points). He's a dual-threat quarterback who earlier in the year put up 23.48 and 24.9 FanDuel points against West Virginia and TCU, respectively. Texas (50th in defensive S&P+) is a respectable defense, but they're no TCU (24th), as shown by the Red Raiders' 30.25 implied total. Expect Duffey to be involved on at least two or three of those scores.
Karan Higdon, Michigan ($9,600): Though not listed on FanDuel Sportsbook, this game is all but certain to be a one-sided affair in favor of coach Jim Harbaugh's Michigan Wolverines. At most books, Higdon and company are 39- to 39.5-point favorites with a 47.5 over/under on the road versus Rutgers. The positive game script bodes well for heavy rushing volume, and the Scarlet Knights are 94th in defense and a lowly 114th against the rush. Higdon, who has at least 19 carries in five straight, is probably the best point-per-dollar value at the position.
Adrian Killins, Jr., UCF ($9,300): Like Michigan, the UCF Knights are big favorites (25.0) at home against Navy. They own the second-highest implied total (44.5) on the slate, too, so Adrian Killins will have an opportunity to get in on a tuddy or two. And he should have no problem racking up the yards; the Midshipmen sit 108th against the run and 95th in adjusted defensive line yards. Furthering his case, Killins has also averaged 5.3 yards per carry at home compared to only 3.5 on the road. For an even safer cash-game play, OU's Trey Sermon ($9,000) gets you more exposure to the Sooners' high total, and he and Murray have shown that they're both able to deal out the fantasy points in the same game.
Da'Leon Ward, Texas Tech ($8,200): In college football DFS, it's not natural to go after a team's dual-threat quarterback and running back, but this is a special circumstance. Ward's running production has been hindered by his peers, as evident from his 18 carries, 69 yards and 1 touchdown over the last two. But his role in the passing game is key, as he's taken 12 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown in the same time frame. Just a week ago, he tallied 27.2 FanDuel points against Oklahoma in a similarly scripted game, despite three rushes and a catch for Ta'Zhawn Henry. The opportunities will be there for Ward, as both the Red Raiders and Sooners average 75-plus plays per game this season.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Hakeem Butler, Iowa State ($9,600): Last week, the Iowa State Cyclones busted in a complete blowout of Kansas. But one thing is always certain -- Hakeem Butler's going to get his. With his 5-catch, 164-yard, 1-touchdown game against KU, for the season Butler's turned out 33 catches, 791 yards and 8 touchdowns as the team's leading receiver. According to NCAA Savant, his 27.78% target share is fourth in the Big 12 and top 25 nationally. This week's matchup with Baylor is one where Butler could go absolutely nuts. The Bears are 101st in defense, 87th against the pass and 122nd in isolated points per play (1.38).
CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma ($9,100): For his standards, Lamb is coming off a down game in which he totaled 4 catches and 51 yards. Both he and Marquise Brown's big numbers were limited by the involvement of Lee Morris ($8,300), who caught four passes for a couple of scores. You can go there in tournaments if you'd like, but buying low on Lamb could prove more lucrative. Prior to Week 11, the sophomore posted at least 11.1 FanDuel points in seven straight, including nine touchdowns. We want as many pieces of the Sooners' 50-point total as humanly possible.
Devin Duvernay, Texas ($7,200): Longhorns receiver Collin Johnson is dealing with a knee injury, and while he's probable to play, he was seen using crutches after Thursday's practice. I'm not a doctor, but that sounds like he'll be less than 100% going into the week, so junior Devin Duvernay could be asked to pick up the slack in the Texas receiving corps. Just last week, he impressed with 6 catches, 100 yards and a touchdown, and he is third on the team in targets (38) in 2018. The Red Raiders are 120th in isolated points per play, so a big game is certainly in the cards for Duvernay and the Texas wideouts.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.