3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 38
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will cover FanDuel's main slate that begins Sunday at 10:00 a.m. EST and features all 10 matches.
|Sunday, May 12th|
|Bournemouth at Crystal Palace|
|Arsenal at Burnley|
|Chelsea at Leicester|
|Everton at Tottenham|
|West Ham at Watford|
|Manchester City at Brighton|
|Huddersfield at Southampton|
|Newcastle at Fulham|
|Wolverhampton at Liverpool|
|Cardiff at Manchester United|
Ah, Matchweek 38 -- the final day, and the best slate of the year. It's also the easiest slate to find good plays that will be under-owned as the sheer volume of players available will keep ownership fairly spread out.
We have four big favorites on this slate. Manchester City, owners of 86.7% implied win odds, per FanDuel Sportsbook, lead the way as they travel to Brighton in search of three points to capture back-to-back EPL championships. Manchester United (79.6 implied win odds), Liverpool (77.8%) and Southampton (71.4%) are also healthy favorites. The only other side with implied win odds of more than 50.0% is Crystal Palace (52.4%).
It's a safe bet that City and Liverpool will be popular. We know what to expect from these two as they fight for the title, and while a full fade of both teams would be a very contrarian move, it could backfire in a big way. So the key on this slate is picking the right stars from those two sides while also nailing your choices from the other teams.
Here are three non-Liverpool and non-City players who have GPP-winning upside and could go a tad overlooked on this slate.
Wilfried Zaha, Forward, Crystal Palace
FanDuel Price: $11,500
Zaha has been underwhelming this season, totaling just 10 goals and three assists in 33 EPL appearances, but he's tapped into his upside more often in the second half of the year. Over his last 15 league outings, he's scored at least 16.0 FanDuel points in nine of them, with at least 29.0 FanDuel points in five of those.
As usual, Zaha is very reliant on goals for DFS production, which makes him extremely volatile. But low-floor, high-ceiling assets are perfect for GPPs, and a home match against Bournemouth is a spot in which Zaha could blow up.
The Cherries have allowed big days to some mid-table teams lately, giving up two goals to Leicester, three to Burnley and three to Southampton. Palace carry 52.4% implied win odds, the fifth-best on this slate, and they've tallied six goals across their past three EPL fixtures.
Zaha's week-to-week inconsistency suits him perfectly for GPPs, and on a slate when we've got plenty of appealing forward options, he could be a real difference maker at lower ownership.
Paul Pogba, Midfielder, Manchester United
FanDuel Price: $9,500
Pogba was in great form not too long ago, and the same could be said for all of United's players. Things have gone south in a hurry, though, and they've been eliminated from a top-four spot, meaning they may rotate the squad in Sunday's home finale. But if Pogba's in there, he's in a dope spot at home versus Cardiff City.
Cardiff are going back to the Championship, and they've surrendered six goals across their past three matches. For the year, they've conceded 69 times in 37 EPL matches, and United own the slate's second-best implied win odds (79.6%), with oddsmakers believing Ole Gunnar Solskjær will field a strong lineup.
Pogba should be on the ball a ton, and his role as penalty taker is a massive boost to his DFS value. With City and Liverpool offering so many enticing options in midfield, Pogba could fly under the radar despite United being a huge home favorite.
Nathan Redmond, Midfielder, Southampton
FanDuel Price: $8,000
Redmond has been playing in a more advanced role, and he's projected to do the same again this weekend. He's posted some big FanDuel scores lately, including outings of 48.9, 18,9 (twice) and 22.5 FanDuel points over his last seven games.
Huddersfield have been so bad this year, and they have won just a single match -- in any competition -- since November 25th. They've shipped 22 goals in their last seven EPL matches. While elite sides like Liverpool (five goals) and Spurs (four) have roasted them in that span, they've also given up four apiece to Leicester and West Ham.
Southampton could go off in this matchup. Redmond is a nice way to get exposure to the Saints' attack, and he's unlikely to be the most popular midfield play on his own squad as James Ward-Prowse's ($9,000) set-piece ability should attract plenty of attention.